View Full Version : The Housing Market Thread
Ok now we have an off-topic forum I thought I would start another housing market thread.
So what's your opinion on the housing market i.e. prices? Are they going to crash or what? If so when?
Nobody knows for sure but there is no harm in making an educated guess.
Personally I think the average UK bod is over-stretched debt-wise and the housing market is a bubble. The big question is when. It could be two or three months away or five to six years away. Check this news out today:
http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,1954301,00.html
This can be contraversial especially as everyone is biased. People like me who are looking to buy are more likely to think it will crash. People who have already bought are more likely to think it won't. I guess this makes sense really as the market is largely built on sentiment and if people believe one or the other then it will likely become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Wrote this in the professional mortgages thread, think it's better off here!
That's what's confusing me, in the intro it says for those studying for a professional qualification, but in the t&c's it says you have to be over 21 snd fully qualified! So no good for me.
Bring on the crash! There must be one coming soon, in like the next five years. I was reading something about how one financial institution *wont say who* said in 2000 that in 2012 the base rate would reach 5% and the property market would crash. So the 5% has come six years early but no signs of crashing yet... been keeping my eye on certain properties and nothing seems to be moving much so maybe it's on it's way? And especially if the base rate is going up in the New Year too.
Are you a fellow house-hunter lincs?
Gem
Well i'm just waiting to finish my degree, but i've slowly been saving for a deposit for about 5-6 years. I don't want to buy into a bubble though!
I think interest rates are going to reach a minimum of 5.5% in 2007 but to be honest interest rates are incredibly hard to speculate on it seems. But the USA have had low interest rates to and they are now into negative house price inflation year on year, proving that interest rates don't have to be high for a property bubble to deflate.
Definately not. I'm not sure when you would buy. Would you buy when prices hit rock bottom or about halfway?
I'm struggling to save for my deposit, I have to keep paying off my partners debts :roll:
I was hoping to get a mortgage as soon as I was 18 but with no deposit and on my salary I doubt any mortgage provider would take a second look at me.
I read it would also have an affect on utility bills? :? Don't really understand that one...
Definately not. I'm not sure when you would buy. Would you buy when prices hit rock bottom or about halfway?
I'm struggling to save for my deposit, I have to keep paying off my partners debts :roll:
I was hoping to get a mortgage as soon as I was 18 but with no deposit and on my salary I doubt any mortgage provider would take a second look at me.
I read it would also have an affect on utility bills? :? Don't really understand that one...
Dunno how it would effect utility bills, if anything I would of thought it would be the other way around. If utility bills rise this means the inflation rate rises which is what the bank of england uses to base interest rates on. If inflation is rising then the bank will increase interest rates which will (at least hopefully) lead to a fall in house price inflation.
And re' the debt, sorry to hear about yours but this is another 'factor' that will cause the house price crash in my opinion. Because of low interest rates we are now the most indebted nation in the world (i think - certainly up to the eyeballs anyway!). If interest rates rise to high it will be time to wheel out Noah's ark again. :?
As to buying when prices hit rock bottom or not thats another nightmare. If they do fall, no-one will ever know when the bottom is until they rise again. The same as no-one knows when the current boom will have peaked until quite a while after the event. If prices fell 20% and they weren't still tumbling month on month they I would buy - it's possible they could fall further but hopefully it wouldn't take to long for them to rise again to the price you had paid. Some people are predicting 50% falls but that seems a bit like wishful thinking (but possible!).
If they do fall I will feel sorry for those people that paid over the odds, but at the end of the day it's people paying over the odds that are keeping the bubble going.
All in my humble opinion! :wink:
Baggybooks
23-11-06, 09:18
When I bought my first property in the 80's prices were high (interest rates were even higher!).
A couple of years later the prices crashed and I lost a third.
But I bit the bullet and by the time I relocated to a different area things were easier.
When I sold that second property I made 100% - and as I was moving to an area where property was a lot cheaper, it really was profit.
It was galling when I lost on the first one, particularly as I'd taken on two jobs to provide a 1/3 deposit - and it all went!
But I looked at the bigger picture. Long-term I've done well out of property but you have to have a steady hand.
I was 'lucky' because the 1/3 I originally lost was my deposit and not tied into the mortgage. But it was awful when I completed the sale and saw the proceeds.
The important thing was that I was still on the ladder - and that's the key. Prices at the moment are high - but interest rates aren't. When I look at my first mortgage statement the figures are really scary!
Helen
Aye unfortunately the way prices are at the moment many people are looking on the crash you went through as some sort of heaven sent era. Well, those that are first time buyers anyway.
You have an opinion on the near-future of today's market baggybooks?
Baggybooks
23-11-06, 09:54
I just roll with the punches.
Housing has to be looked at long-term. If it crashed and the value of my property dropped, I would still be living in a lovely home and if I moved, the property I was moving to would also have dropped.
My concerns are those awful mortgages that allow you to borrow too much. That's where things will come unstuck.
I took the initiative and saved for ages to get my first deposit. Nowadays, people won't wait. They want everything now. If you suggested taking on another job and saving for 5 years they wouldn't be interested. Negative equity is a painful experience - but even more so when it's multiplied.
I work for a builder and we're still selling property often before they're finished.
Helen
:wink:
Scares the be-jeesus outta me does property - but I can't see anything going kaboom just yet. There's just been absolutely nothing in the press of late apart from mortgage companies willing to lend out a new all time high 5 times your salary.
I'm guessing another one will happen [crash] but as to when I have no ideas or guesses.
I hope it's never though, I hate losing money!
Oh, A GREAT site to go on is
http://www.ourproperty.co.uk
register and you can see HMLR data via postcode and sales of houses via postcode to give you an idea of inflation in recent years,
you have to register (FREE) but I use it a lot to look for potential investment areas!
Interest rates rise again....
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6251963.stm
Roll on the house price crash!
And my savings will be going up too :D
Baggybooks
12-01-07, 12:07
And mine.
Check out the interest rates from the 1980's. Now that was a scary time to have a mortgate.
:cry:
What does everyone think of the ing mortgage?
5.3%. No penalties for re-mortgaging and initial fees are cheaper than most other high street banks (probably shouldnt say that as I work in a high street bank!) and no arrangement fee. Can take payment holidays of 6 months at 3 months at a time and can underpay and overpay when necessary.
I think this is really good!
I'm also thinking about the Abbey mortgage and Virgin.
However... my Mum and Dad have seen some new houses for just over £100k and have said they might buy us one :shock:
Get you with the rich mummy and daddy!
Sounds like one with Northern Rock to me Gem... I hear the Woolwich mortgage is a cracker too - have a look at the deals on Barclays. Bear in mind the payment breaks still incur interest and are added on to the final cost of the mortgage at the end of the term of the deal (maybe they'll extend the length oftime to pay the mortgage actually)... sounds good though! And now's the right time to buy!
This will be the first time they've put their hand in their pocket for me :P although they did buy most of the furniture in my house and they're paying for me to have one driving lesson every week. :)
I think they've realised that I'm actually the better sibling so they're starting to balance out the money they've spent on my brother :D
Will have a look at barclays, thanks J.
Gem
come to think of it - I was going to get the similar mortgage witht he payment breaks in it Gem, it's really good - but they faffed about a bit and deliberated when considering my application (and considering it were the same corporation I was already with for my mortgage) I decided to go elsewhere and instead off the payment breaks got a really low 5 year fixed rate. I too can now pay over or under the payment so long as I don't go over or under by a certain amount (so long as it is agreed with the mortgage people) so it's like a little bank account on the side, if I pay £5000 extra then I can retract that @ any point I wish - so long as I weren't in arrears already :-)
Good luck, let me know how you get on - i'm currently helping my Aunt with her mortgage (although I don't want to I got roped into it!)
We're going to apply (if we need to) in July. I'll let you know!
Thanks so much
Gem
I remember the 1st mortgage payment that appeared on my bank statement... I was just 19! I couldn't believe it, it made me feel so grown up! then I opened the fridge and saw beer, which, when swiftly consumed - threw me back to early teen behaviour :lol:
Good luck, but even better luck if your mam and dad buy you a place! jees, imagine not having a mortgage to pay and to have all your earnings as spending money! YOU BIATCH!!! lol xxx
I know!
My partner was like :shock: 'we're gonna be rich'
Well try not to get too excited because it might not happen...
'WE'RE GOING TO BE RICH!' :shock: :shock:
If they do buy it for us we may have to wait a year or so but I don't care. Renting isn't that bad :D
J do you have msn? Will be nice to chat outside of here!
Gem
Yes, I do- I haven't been on it for bloody ages though. Last time I went on was a few months back and saw all my friends had been removed!
jamieleeuk@hotmail.com
I have skype too, and also Myspace IM but for chatting like that i'd probably side with MSN.
vBulletin® v3.7.1, Copyright ©2000-2008, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.